Warning: Heavy number-crunching follows.
Republicans won 9 (possibly 10, pending a recount) out of the 23 open Oklahoma House seats previously held by Democrats, plus they replaced incumbent Democrat Roy McClain with Dan Sullivan in House 71 (a 13 point margin). Republicans lost one incumbent -- Stuart Ericson (HD 13) was swamped by a Brad Carson turnout push in the Carson's 2nd Congressional District and lost to Jerry McPeek by 347 votes (3%). A net pickup of 8 gives Republicans 57 seats to 44 for the Democrats. If David Schaffer (HD 78) prevails in a recount, the score would go to 58-43, just nine votes short of a two-thirds majority.
SoonerPoll.com made their State House picks last week and even polled 17 key races -- 13 open Democrat seats, two incumbent Democrat seats, and two open Republican seats. Let's compare their picks to the results in open Democrat seats (SoonerPoll rating in parentheses after the seat number, and poll result where available, MOE +/- 4.4%).
SoonerPoll.com came very near the result (within MOE) in Districts 10, 12, 55, 59, 64, 78, and 92. They didn't poll a couple of races that turned out to be upsets -- Districts 5 and 42, which were rated likely D but went Republican, and District 13, a likely R seat held by an incumbent that went D. In some cases, they got the winner right but were way off on the margin -- like HD 30, and HD 33, supposedly a 1.5% leaner, which ended up a 28 point landslide.
Other "leaning D" seats went heavily for the Republican: In HD 27, they polled it as leaning D by 2.7 but it was won by the Republican by 12 points. The two open Republican seats they had as leaners, but the Republicans won by double-digits.
I give a lot of credit to SoonerPoll.com for making the effort to poll these races and making the result public. There are some improvements to be made, either in their likely voter screen or their random selection method. The Republican GOTV effort probably accounts for the bigger-than-expected margins.
Race-by-race info after the jump.
HD 5 (Likely D) -- SoonerPoll.com didn't poll this seat, rated it "Likely Democrat" -- Grove physician Doug Cox (R) got 56% of the vote in this Grand Lake area seat.
HD 8 (Likely D) -- Ben Sherrer (D) with 62% of the vote.
HD 10 (Leaning R, 3.9%) -- Steve Martin (R) beat the incumbent's wife by 4.7% in Washington, Nowata, and Osage Counties.
HD 12 (Leaning D, 1.2%) -- Wade Rousselot (D) beat Mark Wofford by 1.6%, 239 votes in this Wagoner County seat. The growth of Broken Arrow and Coweta as suburbs is making Wagoner County more Republican, but not quite enough yet.
HD 16 (Likely D) -- Gerry Shoemake (D) with 73% in Okmulgee, Muskogee, and Wagoner Counties.
HD 19 (Likely D) -- R. C. Pruett (D) with 79% deep down in Little Dixie.
HD 22 (Likely D) -- Wes Hilliard (D) succeeds his Uncle Danny with only 57%. In Murray County (named for Alfalfa Bill), that's practically a win for the Republicans.
HD 27 (Leaning D, 2.7%) -- Shane Jett (R) by 12 points -- 54% to 42%. Jett, 29, lost this Shawnee seat to the incumbent (term-limited this year) by just 122 votes two years ago.
HD 28 (Leaning D, 4.1%) -- Law student Ryan Kiesel (D) won Dan Boren's old seat over Seminole mayor Billy Choate, 57-43.
HD 30 (Leaning R, 2.8%) -- Brian Bingman (R), former Sapulpa mayor, with a 12 point win -- 56% to 44%.
HD 33 (Leaning R, 1.5%) -- Lee Denney (R), wins 61% to 39%. She served as Mayor of Cushing. (Beginning to see the importance of electing Republicans at the local level?)
HD 42 (Likely D) -- Lisa Billy (R), a teacher and former Chickasaw tribal legislator, scored a 13 point win in this seat in Garvin and McClain Counties.
HD 49 (Likely D) -- Stillwater resident and OSU rodeo coach Terry Hyman (D) parachuted into this far-south-central Oklahoma district, beating local long-time Republican leader Wanda Cruson, 60-40.
HD 52 (Likely D) -- David B. Braddock (D) wins this one 55-45.
HD 55 (Leaning R, 3.2%) -- Ryan McMullen (D) beat John English (R), son of former conservative Democrat Congressman Glenn English, by 163 votes, or 0.7%, out in west-central Oklahoma.
HD 56 (Leaning D, 1.8%) -- Phil Richardson (R) won by 16 points -- 58% to 42%. The district stretches from Caddo County, through part of Grady County, and up into Canadian County to grab some of Oklahoma City's suburbs.
HD 59 (Leaning R, 4.1%) -- Rob Johnson (R), a staffer for U. S. Rep Tom Cole, won by 6 points in this west-central Oklahoma district.
HD 64 (Leaning D, 0.9%) -- Ann Coody (R) -- former Lawton MacArthur High School principal -- won by 2.6% in once solidly Democratic Comanche County.
HD 73 (Solid D) -- Jabar Shumate (D) wins this heavily Democratic north Tulsa district with 87% of the vote. Republican Sharla Walker has good community credentials, and I saw more yard signs for her than I would have expected, but registration trumps all in District 73.
HD 78 (Leaning D, 2.1%) -- Jeannie McDaniel (D) lost in the in-person voting, but did well enough in the absentee balloting to win by 34 votes. That's the second squeaker this year in Midtown Tulsa involving a crony of former Mayor Susan Savage -- former Fire Chief Tom Baker (D) won reelection to the City Council by only 24 votes. David Schaffer (R) is giving serious thought to paying for a recount, and I think he should. While the Republicans don't need this seat for a majority, they do need a cushion -- and if McDaniel did in fact win this seat, she will be as hard to dislodge as Mary Easley, and may very well use the seat as a launching pad for higher office.
HD 86 (Likely D) -- John Auffet (D) won with 61% in the seat formerly held by House Speaker Larry Adair.
HD 92 (Leaning D, 1.5%) -- Attorney Richard Daniel Morrisette (D) won by 263 votes -- 3 points -- in southern Oklahoma City.
HD 97 (Likely D) -- Mike Shelton (D) won 67-33 over Harold Roberts, in northeast Oklahoma County.
