It's been the guess of many a Republican insider that Tulsa Mayor Bill LaFortune would end up not seeking re-election. For one thing, it fits the pattern of his career to date. He was appointed to fill a vacancy as District Attorney, but didn't even finish out the term, much less seek re-election, instead taking a position with a private law firm. LaFortune has alienated most of his Republican party base and had very weak re-elect numbers in recent polls. For an incumbent, less than 50% support in your own party is a political death sentence. You will either lose the primary, or if you survive, the lack of an enthusiastic base will kill you in the general. (See Bush, George H. W., 1992 re-election campaign of.) There had been rumors of problems raising campaign funds and spending funds unwisely. And there were rumors that high-ranking Republican officials have been working for the better part of a year to find him a Bush administration sinecure, to give him a face-saving exit.

Rusty Goodman, a Democrat political activist who runs the okdemocrat message board, posted tonight that he had heard that a position in the Southwest Power Administration has been secured for LaFortune. SWPA is headquartered in Tulsa.

If true, it will be fascinating to watch how things shake out in the race to replace him.