Istook poll: Coburn best shot at beating Carson

The Wilson Research poll commissioned by Congressman Ernest Istook is out, and it confirms what many have thought -- Tom Coburn is the Republican Party's best shot at holding the Senate seat being vacated by Don Nickles. The poll has Coburn in a statistical dead heat with Brad Carson, while in head-to-head matchups Carson beats Bob Anthony and Kirk Humphreys handily. The three Republicans all do about equally as well in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th congressional districts, but it's in the 1st and 2nd districts that Coburn outclasses the other two. OU Professor Keith Gaddie notes in his analysis:

Dr. Coburn runs slightly stronger than the other Republicans. His major impact, though, is in weakening the core support for Rep. Carson. The net effect is a nine-point improvement over the Anthony/Humphreys matchups against the likely Democratic nominee. ...

The Coburn candidacy has the peculiar effect of both emboldening base Republicans while also competing for swing voters. This is intriguing, given the strong preference for Coburn first among conservatives.

All over northeastern Oklahoma there are people who were helped in some way by Tom Coburn or his staff during his six years in Congress. A lot of those people are Democrats. My grandfather, a lifelong Democrat, was appointed by Coburn to a veterans advisory committee, and he became one of Coburn's supporters. Voters that would be a slam dunk for Carson against Humphreys or Anthony will have to at least think about their choice if Coburn is on the ballot.

Add to that the fact that conservative Republicans are excited about the chance to send Coburn back to Washington. They may like Humphreys and Anthony, but they admire Tom Coburn. Many Tulsa area Republicans have followed his career, and the constant criticism he endured from the Tulsa Whirled, but they will get their first chance to vote for him this month.

Congressman Istook promised to make the results public, and he has. You can read the questions, see the summary results, and the crosstabs, which break down the sample and compare answers from different questions -- it's all on soonerpolitics.com. Plenty to pore over. Thanks to Congressman Istook, Wilson Research, and Professor Gaddie for this important contribution to the Republican decision-making process.