Oklahoma primary 2018 results: Runoffs galore

I'll be on with Pat Campbell on 1170 KFAQ at 7 a.m. Wednesday morning to discuss tonight's results.

We are headed for runoffs galore.

As I write this a bit after 11 p.m., Kevin Stitt is leading Todd Lamb for the second spot in the runoff by about 2400 votes. There are 11 precincts yet to report statewide in Tulsa, Cleveland, Canadian, Rogers, and Wagoner counties, where Kevin Stitt leads Todd Lamb among precincts already reporting by about 15,000 votes, so it appears that we will have a Cornett-Stitt runoff. Despite his name recognition and his home field advantage, Cornett failed to break 50% in Oklahoma county. Winner in August will face Ayatollah Drew Edmondson, who will spend the summer watching the Republicans do his opposition research for him.

The result sets up an OKC vs. Tulsa runoff in several races: In the Lt. Governor's race, Dana Murphy's strong showing in metro OKC outweighed Matt Pinnell's dominance in metro Tulsa, for a result of 46% to 36%. In the AG race, Mike Hunter came close to 50% in Oklahoma County; Gentner Drummond beat Hunter in Tulsa County 44%-40%. In the Corporation Commission's race, Bob Anthony won the two largest counties, but by a narrower margin in Tulsa County.

The results in the Republican Governor's and 1st Congressional District primaries demonstrate once again the hazards of top-two runoffs and the need for instant runoff voting (effectively, multiple layers of runoffs) to ensure that the will of the majority is accomplished. In the Governor's primary, about 22% of the vote went to the seven bottom candidates; five of those candidates had more votes than the margin between Lamb and Stitt. In CD 1, had either Andy Coleman or Nathan Dahm dropped out, the other candidate likely would have beaten Kevin Hern into a runoff with Tim Harris. Even last-place Danny Stockstill's votes could have re-arranged the order of finish.

In the absence of instant runoff voting, voting tactically is the wise thing to do, but it is impossible to cast a successful tactical vote without good polling information. You have to know which of your preferred candidates has the best shot at making the runoff. After the polls closed, and only then, I learned that there was polling showing that Coleman had the best chance of beating Hern in a runoff. Tim Harris's first-place finish was a complete surprise, as there seemed to be very little energy behind his campaign, despite the name recognition from his years as DA. I am surprised that neither the Coleman campaign or groups supporting him tried to make a tactical-voting pitch to Dahm supporters.

Likewise, I'm surprised that Todd Lamb's campaign failed to reach out to supporters of Fisher, Jones, and Richardson in the last week. Lamb would have been second choice for many of these voters.

As I write this, State Auditor candidate Cindy Byrd is 2,277 votes shy of an outright primary win.

Platform Caucus members, who voted against the tax increases, had a tough night. Voters in the highly-taxed and expensive Bixby and Jenks school districts voted for candidates promising even higher taxes to fund their plush schools. Looks like the Bixby Education Association's strategic list was successful in turning out the people they wanted to vote, as were the dark-money ads claiming that conservative incumbents were really liberals. Incumbents Scott McEachin and Chuck Strohm lost their primaries by wide margins. Mike Ritze made it to a runoff, but finished second to a challenger. They stood for the taxpayers, but we failed to stand by them. "Grassroots conservatives" is a meaningless phrase unless grassroots "activists" show up to knock doors and help their elected officials rebut slanderous, well-funded accusations from special interest groups.

Shelley Brumbaugh, who narrowly lost the special election primary to succeed her late husband, lost her second try against tax-hiker Ross Ford by a wide margin.

Other pro-taxpayer legislators did better. Mark Dean Allen and Tom Gann won their primaries by a wide margin. Jeff Coody, Travis Dunlap, Sean Roberts, and Tess Teague finished first in their primaries, but barely, and each faces a runoff. George Faught and Bobby Cleveland will also have runoffs, but they have a 16- or 17-point lead on their next nearest opponents.

I was happy to see Dan Hicks make it to his runoff for the open House 79 seat, but he finished second by 169 votes to tax-hiker Karen Gilbert.

I was also pleasantly surprised to see State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister fail to win renomination outright. Linda Murphy has a long road to victory, but it's possible.

Big shock of the night: Osage/Pawnee DA Rex Duncan's 65%-35% defeat to challenger Mike Fisher.

Tulsa County DA Steve Kunzweiler will have to deal with a runoff, but he beat Ben Fu and Tammy Westcott by 13 points. Westcott missed the runoff by only 613 votes, despite Fu's FOP backing.

Each of the judicial races will have a runoff at the general election in November, and all but one of my picks survived:

District 14 Office 1: Caroline Wall vs. Tom Sawyer. Even though Wall topped 50%, the top two in the Tulsa County-only primary go to a runoff in November for both Tulsa County and Pawnee County voters.

District 14 Office 3: Incumbent Jim Caputo made the runoff but finished second to Tracy Priddy, who has a great deal of support from leftist-friendly donors. I expect that Jim Williamson's voters will support Caputo in November's runoff.

District 14, Office 12: Special Judge Martha Rupp Carter and former City Councilor Rick Westcott will be in the November runoff.

Tulsa County Associate District Judge: Special Judge Cliff Smith and former State Sen. Brian Crain won the top two slots in a close three-way race with Adam Weintraub.

Upset of the night goes to Joe Howell's 60-40 win over State Sen. Ervin Yen.