Will Boris's Brexit deal pass? Should it?

Just two weeks ahead of the October 31, 2019, date of the UK's departure from the European Union, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has come back from Brussels with a new treaty that removes indefinite EU control over UK regulations and customs, eliminates fears of a hard border between the UK province of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and, he believes, can win a majority in the House of Commons, unlike the treaty negotiated by his predecessor, Theresa May. The vote will occur in an extraordinary Saturday sitting of the House of Commons on October 19, 2019.

As an Anglospherophile, I look forward to the day when the close cooperation between the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand on foreign policy and defense can be extended to include trade and travel between nations that share a common heritage of language, culture, law, and values. The first step to a closer US-UK economic relationship is the UK withdrawal from the protectionist empire known as the European Union. Here are a few links with the latest on this story, which I've been following with great interest.

The editorial board of the Spectator, a center-right political magazine, has high praise for the deal and Johnson's strategy:

The Brexit deal agreed with the EU is a spectacular vindication of the Prime Minister's approach: to go back to Brussels with the genuine prospect that Britain would leave with no deal on 31 October. The EU started off by saying it would never reopen the withdrawal agreement, but with a no-deal Brexit back in prospect, compromise -- and thus a deal -- has been possible. And yes, parliament has said it would force the Prime Minister to ask for an extension of EU membership; but No. 10 said it would find a way to not do so. It seems that this was enough to focus minds in Brussels.

Boris Johnson's deal is the opposite to that struck by Theresa May in that the more you look at it, the better it seems.

Columnist "Steerpike" lists "Five Reasons Why Boris Johnson's Brexit Deal Is Better Than Theresa May's". Those reasons include that the Northern Ireland assembly, not the EU, will decide when the special customs arrangement with Ireland would end. Other provisions, less discussed, but just as objectionable to those wanting a genuine exit from the authority of EU institutions, have been moved from the binding Withdrawal Agreement treaty, but are still present in the Political Declaration, which is claimed to be non-binding (although this is disputed). For example, there is in the Political Declaration a commitment to a "level playing field," which nominally would require the UK not to use its independence to reduce taxes and regulations and thus gain a competitive edge over the EU.

In Annex 4 of the Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol to May's Withdrawal Agreement, you find language like this (emphasis added):

With the aim of ensuring the proper functioning of the single customs territory, the Union and the United Kingdom shall ensure that the level of environmental protection provided by law, regulations and practices is not reduced below the level provided by the common standards applicable within the Union and the United Kingdom at the end of the transition period in relation to: access to environmental information, public participation and access to justice in environmental matters; environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment; industrial emissions; air emissions and air quality targets and ceilings; nature and biodiversity conservation; waste management; the protection and preservation of the aquatic environment; the protection and preservation of the marine environment; the prevention, reduction and elimination of risks to human health or the environment arising from the production, use, release and disposal of chemical substances; and climate change.

Channeling his inner John Wayne, cabinet member Michael Gove says that "there ain't gonna be no second referendum," no re-vote that could cancel the decision made in the 2016 referendum.

Blogging at the Spectator, Open Europe policy analyst Dominic Walsh summarizes eight major changes between Teresa May's deal and the deal Boris Johnson has just concluded with the EU. He has produced a "track changes" version of the proposed Brexit treaty, showing text removed, moved, and added between the two versions.

The Spectator is also counting heads. At this writing, they've identified eight opposition and DUP MPs who have announced support for the new deal (32 non-Tories are needed if all Tories vote in favor), and they are watching 28 Tory pro-Brexit MPs who voted against the Theresa May deal on the third try (when Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and other Brexit-backing Conservatives caved in to pressure). The Democratic Unionist Party has announced that it cannot support the deal.

The Bruges Group, an organization founded by Margaret Thatcher 30 years ago in opposition to the EU's push for ever-closer union, has announced its opposition to the deal. They list 15 objectionable aspects of the Political Declaration.

Douglas Carswell, co-founder of Vote Leave and the only MP to win in a general election under the UKIP banner, has tweeted, "if I was in the House of Commons this Saturday, I'd vote for Boris' deal. Maximum respect for Brexit Party, but it's time to take this win."

Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit Party, considers Johnson's revised Working Agreement as a slight improvement, but still a failure to extract the UK from control by the institutions of the EU. In a panel discussion with some of his fellow Brexit Party MEPs, Farage said, "This is probably the darkest day in this whole journey to becoming an independent nation once again."

Writing in the Spectator, Rod Liddle predicts the Brexit Party and many Conservative MPs will still consider Boris's deal BrINO -- Brexit in Name Only.

If Boris somehow succeeds in getting his deal through, it will meet with the implacable opposition of Nigel Farage's Brexit party and probably a large handful of Conservative MPs. This is because the deal is scarcely any better -- and in some ways worse -- than the one that Theresa May failed to get through the House of Commons. In which case the prime minister will have to rely on the hope that the entire Leaver vote becomes so sick of the whole corrosive process that they swing behind the deal and thus the Conservative party. Some undoubtedly will think precisely that, following Tom Harris's dictum that 'I've got about half of what I voted for in the referendum, so I'll be happy with that.' However, many will not and Boris, remember, needs to gain more than 40 seats. The Brexit party in this scenario will field candidates in pretty much every constituency, sapping -- largely -- the Tory vote.

Liddle isn't encouraged by the polls showing the Tories ahead of Labour going into the next election, and he maps out electoral forecasts for the deal passing or failing, both of which end in doom for the Tories.

LINKS:

Here is the official Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration negotiated by Theresa May, released in November 2018, and subsequently defeated three times in the House of Commons. The Withdrawal Agreement is a binding treaty between the UK and the EU. The Political Declaration is a document "setting out the framework for the future relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom."

Here is the New Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland and Political Declaration negotiated by Boris Johnson, released today. There is not a completely new Withdrawal Agreement; rather, there is a 63-page protocol that replaces the 174-page protocol in the original Withdrawal Agreement; the other 425 pages of Theresa May's treaty are unchanged.