Election Day 2020: Notes

I voted in person yesterday at 9:35. The line was out the door, but not very far, and I slid my ballot into the scanner and was finished in 20 minutes. The other, larger precinct that votes at the same church had a line across the parking lot, but I suspect that many of those people were from my precinct but had just joined the first line they saw. When I drove back by mid-afternoon and toward the end of the day, there were no lines at all, and that was true of other precincts I passed.

We opted for a home watch party -- me, my wife, our younger two kids (the oldest is away in grad school). We started out scanning local stations at 6 pm, as states began to report results, but they were all in local-news mode, and only PBS was covering national results. We couldn't tolerate that for long, so we switched the screen to the computer, and pulled up Fox News on one size and DecisionDeskHQ.com on the other. We had carryout chicken tikka masala from Desi Wok and later snacked on some Plymouth East Meadow Cheddar I'd brought back from a recent visit to Calvin Coolidge's home town and the cheese factory founded by his father and revived by his son.

I did go out at about 8:30 to take pictures of posted results from nearby precincts. Our precinct officials posted the tape in the window, as required, but they allowed enough overlap with a notice posted next to it so that the results for the presidential and U. S. Senate races were hidden by the other piece of paper.

What I could see was encouraging. Although the midtown precincts I checked were fairly evenly divided between Democrat and Republican candidates, State Question 805 was losing by a substantial margin.

While driving around I flipped through the radio stations. KRMG's Dan Potter had current Mayor GT Bynum IV and former Mayor Susan Savage. I wondered on Facebook why KRMG didn't include a Republican in their coverage, but Democrat allies on past city tax and zoning battles reminded me that they didn't include a Democrat either. Both mayors are proud members of the Money Belt Uniparty who may have only a vague idea where the three eastside seats on the ballot are located. Bynum and Savage were both gleeful about the defeat of District 5 Councilor Cass Fahler, the strongest council ally for Tulsa police officers and the strongest opponent of mask mandates. Bynum called Fahler's campaign "lazy," contrasting it with Mykey Arthrell's tireless pursuit of votes. They also sounded thrilled about the re-election of Connie Dodson in District 6 and Lori Decter Wright in District 7.

I thought that Republicans had a good chance at taking two of the three City Council races on the ballot; Dodson had forged a moderate path on police and masks and seemed likely to win re-election. Fahler's re-election was killed by another 2-to-1 early vote advantage; he won election day but lost the total by 347 votes. I have heard that neighborhood social media pages in the northwestern part of the district were extremely hostile to Fahler, particularly over his stance on mask mandates. These seem to be popular areas for progressives who want to live near the city center but can't afford to live any nearer than Yale Ave. District 6 wasn't close; challenger Christian Bengel was badly underfunded, and the FOP had endorsed incumbent Dodson very early in the race. Wright's challenger Justin Van Kirk poured a ton of his own money into the race, narrowly won among election day voters, but lost by about 1600 votes because of Decter Wright's 3-1 early voting ratio.

Here is a problem with non-partisan city elections on the same ballot as highly partisan races like President and Senate: Voters mark the straight-party line (as Republicans were encouraging voters to do), but that doesn't cast a vote for allegedly non-partisan council races. On such a long ballot, with as many as 18 items for some voters, a non-partisan race at the very end is easy to ignore, and it's easy to vote for the familiar name.

It's apparent that the Tulsa County Democratic Party has been taking local elections seriously and helping Democrats seeking local non-partisan office. The Tulsa County Republican Party needs to follow suit, to work on local races throughout the election cycle, identifying and recruiting potential candidates who support the GOP's values and policy aims, clearing the path for good candidates (perhaps by conducting an endorsing convention to decide among multiple Republican contenders), and connecting them with money and volunteers. The Tulsa GOP needs to be monitoring the performance of our city, county, and school officials, with reporters at every meeting, recording and highlighting examples of bad judgment and favoritism. It's not enough to get busy in the last few months before an election. The Oklahoma GOP's dominance in the legislature was built by party officials back in the late '90s and early 2000s by men like 1st Congressional District Chairman Don O'Nesky, 2nd District Chairman Bob Hudspeth, 4th District Chairman Steve Fair, and State Chairman Gary Jones, who identified candidates from among local leaders, respected by their communities, not necessarily active in politics, but who had a conservative outlook on public policy. The candidates who will put themselves forward aren't always the best positioned to run a serious race or to govern well; a party's job is to identify good candidates, encourage them to run, and facilitate their efforts with resources.

Back at the house: Fox's reluctance to call states that were obviously in Trump's column and out of reach for Biden (like Texas and Florida) got frustrating after a while, and we switched to Newsmax, then eventually to the Daily Wire for their running commentary.

The four of us were doing our own results reporting, each digging into county-by-county results on DecisionDeskHQ.com on our own computers and sharing interesting finds, while listening for commentary or breaking news. I enjoyed using the map results on the Oklahoma State Election Board results page to drill down to the precinct level to see which precincts were still outstanding and the patterns of support for each candidate. The only big flaw is that it doesn't show different colors in the non-partisan races, so there's no easy way to tell where 805 won and lost or which Tulsa City Council candidates won which precinct.

We stayed up long enough to see Trump apparently about to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, and suddenly the numbers stopped updating. There were reports that vote counting would stop in Philadelphia and in Atlanta, an obvious move to wait for downstate votes to finish coming in so corrupt big-city machine officials could manufacture enough ballots to tip the states to Biden, the same way Kennedy won Illinois in 1960. We all headed to bed shortly thereafter.

Jamison Faught at Muskogee Politico has a map-filled post on the Oklahoma results. Trump and Inhofe won all 77 counties. This is the fifth presidential election in a row that the Republican nominee has swept the state, although the margin in Oklahoma County was only 3400 votes. Democrats lost their last three rural seats in the State House, plus two in Oklahoma County. Republicans now control the House by 82-19 and the Senate by 39-9, and all of the Democrat seats are in the two biggest cities (OKC and Tulsa) and college towns (Norman and Stillwater). This is almost a complete reversal from the situation in the early 1990s, when rural districts (except northwest Oklahoma's wheat country) were solidly Democrat and nearly all Republican seats were in Tulsa and OKC and their suburbs.

I was disappointed to see the defeat of Republican Cheryl Baber in Senate District 35, a seat that had been held for 32 years by conservative Republicans (Don Rubottom, Jim Williamson, Gary Stanislawski), and before that by long-serving moderate Republican Warren Green. Baber had survived a bruising primary and runoff with establishment-backed Kyden Creekpaum. Although Creekpaum endorsed Baber in the general election (wisely so if he hopes to have a future in Oklahoma Republican politics), the endorsement came late in the game, and Democrat Jo Ann Dossett had racked up a two-to-one advantage in absentee-by-mail ballots, 7402 to 3723. Baber dominated election day voting, but fell short by 638 votes. The same pattern can be seen in the Tulsa County Commission race and in several vulnerable Democrat seats. Republicans are going to have to match and surpass the Democrats efforts in early voting, and to plan for targeting voters soon after the ballot is set.

Massive early voting allows well-funded candidates to target and influence voters and lock in their votes before the candidate with fewer dollars, who delays mailers until closer to election day to make her money stretch as far as possible, has put any information in front of the voters. One of the saddest news items in this election season was a surge of searches on the question "Can I change my vote?" after the second presidential debate.