2024 Tulsa general, Oklahoma runoff: A look ahead

While I reserve the right to change my mind, here are the candidates I am currently inclined to support in the Tulsa general election and Oklahoma runoff election on August 27, 2024.

Between now and the election, I will be keeping an eye out on PAC donations and looking deeper into consulting companies. With so many establishment candidates having lost in the primaries, special-interest PAC money is going to be flowing somewhere, and we'll find out which candidates can resist their siren songs.

Political observers have a 40/5 rule of thumb: A candidate that gets over 40 percent in the primary and has at least a 5 point margin over the second-place candidate is almost certain to win the runoff. There have been exceptions, but it generally holds true. In Senate District 33 (Christi Gillespie 44%, Shelley Gwartney 25%), the first-place finisher could likely win just by turning out her voters in August, while the second-place finisher has to get her own people to the polls, plus those who supported the eliminated candidates, a big hill to climb. House District 32 (Jim Shaw 46%, Kevin Wallace 42%) could go either way by the 40/5 rule, but an incumbent who finishes second in a primary is unlikely to prevail in the runoff.

In Tulsa Council districts 5 and 6, there aren't any candidates I can get excited about, but differences over managing the police department and cooperation with ICE might tip the scales one way or another. In 2 and 9, there are multiple interesting possibilities. In 3, I don't know enough about the two candidates. (UPDATE 2024/07/25: I've added recommendations in Districts 2, 3, 5, 6, and 9. In 5 and 6, it came down to "better than the alternative." Where possible, I'd like to avoid having more councilors who have spent most of their career in the non-profit world.)

Only the Tulsa mayor's race and council districts 2, 7, and 9 will be on the August 27 ballot, because there are three or more candidates. The remaining council districts will be settled on November 5. CORRECTION: All of the council seats will be on the August 27 ballot, and any two-candidate race will be settled then. This is in contrast to school board seats, where the law was changed a few years ago so that a two-candidate race is settled on what used to be the school-board runoff date in April.

In District 4, I got to know Aaron Griffith many years ago in the Midtown Coalition of Neighborhood Associations. He's to my left politically, but he has a thick skin and is willing to endure the slings and arrows to stand up for what he believes is right. Aaron is strongly pro-neighborhood, has been a vocal critic of administrative shenanigans at Tulsa Public Schools, and he supports enforcing our immigration laws.

In District 7, I know Eddie Huff through his years as a conservative radio talk host at KFAQ. Margie Alfonso has been an important contributor to conservative politics over the years, but Eddie is better suited to winning a November runoff and serving, but he'll need enough GOP turnout to force a November runoff.

Chris Cone spoke to a Republican group about his vision for the job and his concerns about District 8. He was very impressive, and it will be good to have someone on the Council who is not beholden to the big foundations, knows something of the real world, and does more than pay lip service to his Christian faith. In District 1, I have not met Angela Chambers in person yet, but I see her very positive posts about life and entrepreneurship, and she seems like she will be a great improvement over the incumbent.

Brent VanNorman switched from the Council District 9 race to the mayor's race, and he looks like the best chance to get a conservative in the mayor's office for the first time since Dick Crawford and Jim Inhofe almost 40 years ago. He has the resources to run a strong race, but he needs to draw enough GOP turnout in the August 27 election to force a November runoff.

Tulsa City Elections:

Mayor: Brent VanNorman
Council District 1: Angela K. Chambers
Council District 2: Aaron Bisogno
Council District 3: Susan Frederick
Council District 4: Aaron Griffith
Council District 5: Karen Gilbert (very reluctantly)
Council District 6: Christian Bengel (unenthusiastically)
Council District 7: Eddie Huff
Council District 8: Chris Cone
Council District 9: Jayme Fowler

Oklahoma runoff:

Senate 3: Julie McIntosh
Senate 15: Lisa Standridge
Senate 33: Undecided
Senate 47: Undecided

House 20: Jonathan Wilk
House 32: Jim Shaw
House 50: Stacy Jo Adams
House 53: Undecided
House 60: Ron Lynch
House 98: Gabe Woolley

Tulsa County Commissioner District 2:

Republican runoff: Melissa Myers
Democrat runoff: Maria Barnes