COVID-19 Category

There ought to be a law that all social media posts about CCP Bat Virus must begin with the word "Aha!" Quite a few posts on the topic are there not so much as information, but as vindication for whatever theory or policy prescription the poster wishes to offer.

I've heard this stat in the title quoted many different ways, by people who want to prove that lockdowns are useless, and by people who want to prove that the CCP Bat Virus is so fierce that lockdowns aren't tough enough.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said, when presenting the chart, "This is a surprise. Overwhelmingly the people were at home.... 66% of the people were at home, which was shocking to us."

The CNBC story that quoted Cuomo was headlined: "Cuomo says it's 'shocking' most new coronavirus hospitalizations are people who had been staying home"

"66% of hospitalizations in New York are from people sheltering in place," claims Tom Nikkola, who argues that stay-at-home orders and mask recommendations are for the purpose of behaviorally priming the populace for some nefarious reason.

Here's a sampling from a Twitter search -- the most recent relevant results at time of writing:

• @Daniel48240947: "Lockdown increased COVID in NY. 66 percent of new cases were caused by the lockdown."
• @jeffreywood709: "Cuomo himself stated that more than 66 percent of people in NY who contracted COVID where sheltered in their homes"
• @BryanGarner18: "#coronaviruses, I find it revealing that New York found that 66 percent of Covid Patients had been closed up inside. Is this a Legionaires air system phenomena. ? States allowing beach access are better off. NY needs UV light."
• @D4M4C4, replying to @NYGovCuomo: "If 66 percent of the people were home and still caught the covid virus...I would question your water quality. Your sewer quality too. New York needs infrastructure projects badly!"
• @DrjimPhifer: "Very important to note: 66 percent of new COVID-19 hospital admissions in NY were people who were self-isolating. These two individuals only left home to get groceries. Please use extreme caution!"

Let's look at the chart that was presented by Gov. Cuomo at a May 6, 2020, news conference.

Note the title and the choices on this slide:

SOURCES OF ADMISSION

Other 8%
Nursing Home 18%
Jail/Prison <1%
Homeless 2%
Home 66%
Congregate 2%
Assisted Living 4%

This is a list of the types of places people live, not how busy they were, not whether they sheltered in place or went on public transport or went to the supermarket.

A better way to read this: 66% of the people admitted to hospital for CCP Bat Virus were not homeless, in jail, living in a nursing home, assisted living, or living in any other sort of group housing.

Yet a simpler way to read this: 66% of the people admitted to hospital for CCP Bat Virus live in their own houses, apartments, or condos.

The chart does not convey any information about how much of the time admitted COVID-19 hospital patients had been spending at home or away from home, whether they wore masks or not, whether they maintained social distance or not. Just where they resided.

Bill Hammond, director of health policy for the Empire Center, a free-market think tank serving New York State, was the first one I noticed pointing this out on Twitter.

This question seems to be about where people live, not what they do. On that basis, people living at home are significantly *underrepresented,* as you would expect.

Hammond goes on to point out:

The stat that jumps out at me is nursing homes. They house about 100,000 NYers, which is roughly 0.5% of the population, yet they account for 18% of hospitalizations.

It's not necessarily shocking, but it confirms that NH residents are at dramatically higher risk.

New York Post columnist Karol Markowicz commented:

After reading your thread I now think the highlight on the 66% number was to cover up the 18% nursery [sic] home number.

After listening to Cuomo's remarks a few more times, I'm inclined to agree. As he presents the slide, he says:

This is a surprise. Overwhelmingly the people were at home. Where there's been a lot of speculation about this, a lot of people again had opinions, a lot of people have been arguing where they come from, and where we should be focusing, but if you notice, 18% of the people came from nursing homes, less than 1% came from jail or prison, 2% came from the homeless population, 2% from other congregate facilities, but 66% of the people were at home, which is shocking to us.

The italics indicate Cuomo raising his vocal pitch in emphasis. Rhetorically, he's trying to sweep under the rug the truly shocking number -- 0.5% of the population are the source of 18% of hospital admissions for CCP Bat Virus. The beginning of his remarks suggest that he's about to reveal a number which will undermine the public chatter about the shameful number of people in care homes who have become victims of this disease.

I had thought that many more people would notice what Hammond had noticed, and that the "66% were at home" misreading would quickly be corrected. But here we are eight days later, and I'm still seeing and hearing claims like 66% of hospitalizations were of people who were welded into their apartments and washed their hands a hundred times a day.

As far as I have been able to find, the data set for this survey has not been released. It is not on the State of New York's health data website. The only information we have about it is the slide deck Andrew Cuomo presented on May 6, which in turn was the source for all the news stories written about it. We don't know who conducted the survey, how the questions were presented, or what definitions were provided for the responses to each question. And yet hot take after hot take has been built atop a misreading of the data, or worse, a misreading of someone else's misreading of someone else's misreading.

Moral of the story: Before you quote a statistic, take the time to find out exactly where the number came from and as many specifics as you can about the basis for the number.

MORE: Interestingly, the New York Times ignored the housing chart altogether in their coverage of the survey and Cuomo's news conference. Was it because they didn't want to highlight the horrific nursing home number, because they were confused about the significance of the chart, or because they didn't want to expose Cuomo's mishandling of the chart?

The earliest reference to Spanish flu or influenza in the Oklahoma Historical Society's Digital Newspapers Collection is from page 4 of the August 31, 1918, edition of the Daily Ardmoreite. The flu is still a far-off thing, but near enough to be worthy of some advice:

INFLUENZA AND OSCULATION

If your friend or your relative or your best beloved has a runny cold, don't kiss him or don't kiss her and don't kiss them. They may have the "Spanish Flu."

Bacteriological investigation of the cases which have gotten into this country, indicate that there is nothing new or mysterious about this malady. Some of the cases are of what we would call grippe, some of common colds. The only serious thing about it, according to the New York Commissioner of Health is its tendency to a resultant complication of pneumonia.

Most of these communicable diseases are limited to a five-foot zone. The victims cough or sneeze -- or kiss someone -- and anybody within a radius of five feet of them comes in for a share of the dangerous germs. If people will learn to keep a distance of five feet or more from any person with a cough or the sniffles, or a sore throat, they will be quite reasonably safe.

This is not always possible on trains or street cars. It is the duty of the person with the cold to keep out of such conveyances when possible. When travel is absolutely necessary, the cought [sic] should be covered, and the nose-blowing conducted with as much decency as possible. Kissing should be foregone during the period of the illness. Affection can be expressed without it, and the kisses will be none the less desirable when the danger is over.

This early mention still minimizes the threat to little more than a cold or common flu, with a possibility of pneumonia, and the only precautions are to cover your cough, blow your nose decently, avoid kissing, and avoid public transport.

(The same page of the Ardmorite humorously suggests that the cubist school of art is perfect for producing military camouflage and notes that British subjects living in Oklahoma would be classified for the draft along with Americans.)

The term "grippe" is the French term for the flu, which had caught on in America, often preceded with the feminine article, viz. la grippe. Catarrh, colds, and grippe, an 1899 book by John H. Clarke, M.D., a London homeopath, describes colds as of great interest on both sides of the Atlantic, in his preface to the American edition:

An extensive esperience among American residents and visitors in London convinces me that among the bonds of community between the two great divisions of Anglo-Saxonia, one of no little importance is a common interest in the subject of nasal catarrh. I must, therefore, abandon the claim I made in the first editions of this work, that "cold in the head" is a British interest par excellence; and in offering this little work to American readers I trust that my insular standpoint will prove no bar to its wider usefulness.

In the preface to the Fourth English Edition, Clarke writes that he is adding a section "on that most unwelcome visitor of recent years -- EPIDEMIC INFLUENZA." He mentions that it is, in 1899, "in the seventh year of its visitation. ... For centuries the epidemic disease has prevailed in Western Europe at uncertain intervals, and for want of a more definite description the Italians named it 'Influenza,' or 'The Influence.'" He says that severe colds had come to be named commonly as "Influenza Colds," and then merely as "Influenza." In the new section of the book on "Grippe or Influenza," Clarke says that to distinguish it from Influenza Colds, "the malady is sometimes called 'Siberian' or 'Russian' Influenza, since the epidemics have always begun in the northern part of the Russian Empire." Symptoms are defined as including body aches, chills, high fever, fatigue, and nasal drainage, but "It may attack the chest, the heart, the bowels, or the brain." "Constitutional weakness" is said to be a predisposing factor.

(I hasten to state that I find Clarke's book interesting for its definition and description of influenza as it was understood at the turn of the 20th century, and NOT for its recommended remedies, which involve arsenic, mercury, and belladonna in homeopathic quantities.)

Does G. T. Bynum IV know anyone who lives east of Yale, north of 21st, or west of the river?

I've been watching the creation of blue ribbon panels for years, and this list is disturbingly familiar.

The mayor's picks for his Economic Recovery Advisory Committee are yet another expression of the tunnel vision of this city's ruling class, which can't see beyond its own little network of friends and associates, and which thinks of north, east, and west Tulsa as empty places you speed through to get to the airport, the lake, or Dallas.

When I posted this list to social media, all but one of my friends who replied spotted the deficiencies immediately. If you're in The Money Belt Bubble, if you're a Yacht Guest, you probably won't see any problem at all -- you'll think that this list is comprehensively representative of the city's economic life.

Small companies that make products and provide services for customers across the country and around the world -- they may as well not exist as far as Tulsa's trust-fund babies are concerned. Small, unfashionable businesses that serve the residents of Tulsa's forgotten neighborhoods -- barbers and beauty salons, cafes, neighborhood bars, local retailers, the businesses that are most vulnerable to a prolonged shutdown -- don't rate inclusion in a discussion of Tulsa's economic future.

TU is included, but not ORU, a university that draws students to Tulsa from around the world, many of whom stay after graduation and contribute to Tulsa's economy.

Churches aren't in the picture at all. Bynum IV apparently has no interest in the institutions that provide spiritual, social, and often financial support to vast numbers of Tulsans, institutions that have had to shut their doors and have taken a financial hit along with the rest of the economy.

Let's break down the list. First, you've got the power behind the throne, the woman who was rejected by the voters but found in Bynum IV a vehicle back to the Mayor's office: Kathy Taylor.

Then there are the Kaiser Konnections: Argonaut is George Kaiser's private equity fund, BOK is George Kaiser's bank, GKFF is George Kaiser's foundation, the University of Tulsa is George Kaiser's Kollege, and G. T. Bynum IV is George Kaiser's politician. I seem to recall reading that Gerry Clancy was too ill to continue as president of TU and had to stand aside, to be replaced by the wife of GKFF's executive director, but somehow he has the strength to nurse the city's economy back to health?

Three of the city's hospitals are represented and the city's largest private employer, American Airlines, which seems reasonable. But why do you need to hear from the general manager of the BOK Center, which already enjoys a $200 million public subsidy and is going to be propped up by the taxpayer however bad the economy may get?

There's a city councilor on the panel, and of course it's the councilor for the only district that matters, District 9, which contains the midtown portion of the Money Belt.

Arch-Chamberpot Mike Neal is on the list, head of a quango that pretends to be a branch of government when it's convenient (when it comes to taking tax dollars or hosting the State of the City address as a fundraiser) and a private club when it's not (when it comes to openness and accountability). Most of the rest of the names on the list are also members of the Tulsa Regional Chamber Board of Directors -- the same names that pop up time and again on public boards and commissions.

Tulsa is known around the world as the setting for the bestselling youth novel The Outsiders and the location for Francis Ford Coppola's beautiful film adaptation of the book. But Tulsa was then and still is run by a band of Socs who refuse to acknowledge that the rest of the city exists. This election year, Tulsa needs an Outsiders revolution. Tulsa's ignored neighborhoods need to drive off the mis-leadership of Bynum IV and his Soc cabal and elect a mayor and councilors who represent all of Tulsa.

MORE: Here's the official press release, for the record:

Mayor's Economic Recovery Advisory Committee Formed to Help Restore Tulsa Economy Amid COVID-19 Response

The City of Tulsa and the Tulsa Regional Chamber announced the creation of the Mayor's Economic Recovery Advisory Committee today to help guide near-term strategy around Tulsa's economic recovery while also identifying long-term opportunities for growth as the Tulsa community responds to the COVID-19 threat.

"As we manage a public health crisis using guidance from independent local public health experts, so too will we rely upon guidance from some of the best minds in Tulsa's private sector to recover from this economic crisis," said Tulsa Mayor G.T. Bynum. "I am very grateful for these Tulsans stepping up with their time and expertise across a broad array of industries. Working together, we will work to restore Tulsa's economy while protecting public health."

The Mayor's Economic Recovery Advisory Committee will focus on two main goals. First, to develop guidelines for safely reopening the Tulsa economy during the coming weeks and months, and second, to identify what the Tulsa-area business community needs to do to drive a stronger post-pandemic economy.

"We are confident that the City of Tulsa working in concert with the local business community can ensure we rebound as safely as possible," said Mike Neal, president and CEO of the Tulsa Regional Chamber. "This committee will also leverage the collective brainpower of many of Tulsa's brightest leaders in hopes of helping us all emerge from this challenge as quickly as possible."

Mayor's Economic Recovery Advisory Committee:

Steve Bradshaw, Bank of Oklahoma
Chet Cadieux, QuikTrip
Gerry Clancy, University of Tulsa
Carlin Conner, SemGroup (retired)
Kevin Gross, Hillcrest Medical Center
Marilyn Ihloff, Ihloff Salon & Day Spa
Ben Kimbro, Tulsa City Council
Dave Kollmann, Flintco
Paula Marshall, Bama Foods
Josh Miller, George Kaiser Family Foundation
Steve Mitchell, Argonaut Private Equity
Mike Neal, Tulsa Regional Chamber
Elliot Nelson, McNellie's Group
Jeff Nowlin, Ascension St. John
Erik Olund, American Airlines
Pete Patel, Promise Hotels
Anja Rogers, Senior Star Living
Larry Rooney, Manhattan Construction
Peggy Simmons, American Electric Power
Casey Sparks, ASM Global
Barry Steichen, Saint Francis Health System
Kathy Taylor, Lobeck Taylor Family Foundation
Rose Washington, Tulsa Economic Development Corp.

*Lead Staff: Kian Kamas, City of Tulsa Chief of Economic Development and Justin McLaughlin Tulsa Regional Chamber Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.

For the most up-to-date news, information and business resources in Tulsa, visit www.cityoftulsa.org/COVID-19.

MORE: Longtime reader Bob comments:

Yes, again the Tulsa Regional Chamber of Commerce appears to be picking the Committee members.

For the actual business executives appointed to the Committee, I wouldn't see how they would actually have any real spare time to devote to a Recovery Committee.

BOKF CEO Steve Bradshaw, Q-T CEO Chet Cadieux, and the CEO's of Hillcrest, St. John's and St. Francis are all probably working double-overtime to save their businesses. And, the American Airlines executive appointed has EIGHTY AA jets parked at Tulsa International Airport, totally idle.

BOKF's stock has been plummeting, falling in the past year from $89 per share to a recent low of $35, and only very recently climbing back to $45 per share. Additions by the major banks to their Provision for Loan & Lease losses has been huge at the U.S. Multinational banks at quarter end 3/31. I'll look up BOKF's shortly.

Due to a cessation of elective surgeries, which provide all 3 Tulsa hospitals with the majority of their revenue, they've got to be hemorraging $$.

How much of his valuable time would the SFHS CEO who earned $1.7 million back in 2017, according to OCPA's "Perspective" newsletter, have to devote to a City of Tulsa committee?

What are Bynum's and the Chamber's REAL strategy?

Another "emergency" sales tax INCREASE to "save" City Government.

WHY? Because in the same Tulsa World edition as announcing the Economic Recovery Committee, Mayor Bynum announced a measly 3% cut in the city budget for the Fiscal Year 2021 beginning July 1.

That's Fantastical! The city is intentionally building in a revenue crisis that will hit later this year, but in time for a new Sales Tax initiative, probably a special election, because of the funding "Emergency".

There are now 26.5 MILLION people out of work nationally. The U.S. government accumulated Federal Debt will exceed our 2020 Gross Domestic Product!

There is NO revenue flowing to City facilities at the BOK Arena, Driller Stadium, or the PAC.

As measured earlier this week, less than 180 passengers were cleared that day by TSA at Tulsa International Airport. Normal volume is 5,000 daily.

All the malls are closed. That means no city sales tax generated.

Restaurants are drive-in, take-out, or home delivery only.

Oil prices have collapsed. closing at $17 per bbl today, after actually closing at negative $13 on Monday for the first time EVER. Meaning oil sellers of WTI were paying buyers to buy their May crude oil delivery contracts.

All the oil service companies are announcing layoffs, and capital spending reductions. Oil production companies are shutting in their wells all over the U.S, and offshore. Too much oil for the level of demand.

That's a fair point about the likely level of participation by the CEOs. If the people calling the shots already know the preferred outcome, the members of the Blue Ribbon panel are just there for window dressing. The last thing they want on such a committee is a member who will do research on his own time, who will ask probing questions, and who may come to a different conclusion than the prescribed result.

And in the spirit of Rahm Emmanuel's maxim -- "Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste" -- it wouldn't surprise me if the aim is to create a fiscal crisis that demands higher tax rates.

I'm proud to tell you that an article my wife and daughter co-authored has been published by The Stream. The article "DON'T PANIC: A Homeschooler's Guide to the Quarantine" contains their advice to parents who suddenly find their kids at home because of the CCP Bat Virus, needing to be taught. Mikki has been homeschooling one or another of our children for nearly 13 years, as part of Tulsa's first Classical Conversations community, and Kat was homeschooled through middle school, and she also taught her younger brother how to read. Their tips address the opportunity for togetherness as well as ways to create needed physical and mental space.

They also suggest lightening up the school day, not trying to cram everything in right now.

Lighten up your school day. School at home is different. Thank heavens! You choose the start time. You might be finished in 3 or 4 hours, and that is just fine. (Well, Latin and Logic add some time here.) PJs and cozy blankets work fine! Math probably needs progress to move on to next year's level, but many courses stand alone. Relax about those. Consider Life Skills 101 as a new Unit Study. Cooking is a great way to learn fractions and to feed your family. There are a lot of math card games out there.

(UPDATE: An appendix to the article is an annotated list of links to online resources for homeschooling that our family has found useful.)

That would probably resonate with Karol Markowicz, who complains in her latest New York Post column that schools are overwhelming parents with their distance-learning demands:

My own schedule for our three children, ages 4, 7 and 10, included morning yoga, baking banana bread and listening to a science podcast. We pulled out a world ­atlas and started learning about countries in alphabetical order. My kids are now experts on ­Afghanistan....

Now, I'm just crying. It turns out distance learning is nothing like my cozy little homeschool­ ­program.

Now there is a constant barrage of links, passwords, Google classroom, Zoom, Zoom, Zoom. It's too much: We get messages from their music teachers, their art teachers, librarians, even their gym teachers. They take attendance strictly....

A friend described it as suddenly becoming an administrative assistant to the busiest, and tiniest, CEOs....

But we need the education system's permission to loosen up with our children right now. This should be a time of baking banana bread and listening to mildly educational podcasts. This shouldn't be a time of overscheduling and intense Latin lessons.

I don't know. I always think anytime is a good time for intense Latin lessons.

The weekend was lovely, just about my favorite time of year in Oklahoma. Redbuds were at their peak, dogwoods starting to bloom. One of our redbuds has developed clusters of blossoms along its trunk, which is quite fetching. Azaleas are starting to pop. There are magnificent purple draperies of wisteria around the city; one of them overhangs the westbound lanes of the Broken Arrow Expressway at the bend just west of the Harvard Avenue exit.

A new and stricter shutdown was announced last Saturday, effective that night, so I thought I'd better pick up the items I needed for a couple of home repairs while I could.

I made the mistake of going to a home improvement superstore, thinking I could get everything at once. The parking lot was quite full, and the store made no effort to meter the number of customers entering the building. It seemed like most of the other customers hadn't heard of social distancing or didn't care.

As it happened I couldn't find everything I was after, but I went to wait in line for the self-checkouts for the items I had. There are four self-checkout registers, two on each side, without much space between them. They really ought to close the near one on the left and the far one on the right to provide the proper distance. The proper six-foot distances had been marked on the floor with painter's tape, so I was waiting with my cart across the front transverse aisle from the registers. As soon as a register opened up, a couple of women swooped in to claim it, not noticing me.

After I checked out, there was a traffic jam at the exit, as customers, a couple with two carts, were talking to the supervisor about something doubtful on a receipt. I abandoned my cart and squeezed through with my purchases. Someone needed to be directing traffic, but no one was.

Sunday I still needed those items I couldn't find. I drove past a competing superstore. Their parking lot was packed. I didn't go in.

I headed to Midtown True Value Hardware, a little (7,000 sq. ft.) locally owned hardware store on 31st Street at Sandusky, a few blocks west of Yale. They've got nearly everything you need for home repair, home maintenance, and lawn and garden. Brooms, hammers, screws, drawer pulls, light bulbs, batteries, wire, zipties, bypass pruners, hoes, shovels, grass seed, mulch, top soil -- you name it. And they can sharpen blades, cut keys, cut glass, fix window screens, ship UPS packages, rewire lamps, and locate vintage hardware. If you know exactly what you need, you can go in, get your items, and get out in a few minutes, without fighting the crowds at the big-box stores. They're offering curb service as well during the current crisis.

We used to have a bunch of these neighborhood hardware stores in Tulsa. Swinney's in Whittier Square always had a good stock of plumbing supplies. (They had a notary, too. I got my last-minute declaration of candidacy for my 1998 run for city council notarized there.) There used to be one across Harvard from Lanier Elementary. Between Midtown, Harvard, and Swinney's I could usually find what I needed. Of the three, only Midtown is still open. Dawson Hardware, near White River Fish Market on N. Sheridan, is the only other locally-owned hardware store that comes to mind. The owner of Best Electric and Hardware at 37th and Peoria announced earlier this month his intention to liquidate his stock and close the doors; Best wasn't open when I drove through Brookside on Sunday; a sign says they're closed to the public, but available by phone.

The last item I needed that Midtown Hardware didn't have, I was able to find at Westlake Ace Hardware at 41st and Peoria. It's part of a Kansas-based chain with stores in 12 states, and here in the Tulsa area, they have a number of stores in former Safeway/Homeland supermarket buildings. At about 38,000 sq. ft., Westlake is about a quarter the size of Lowe's, and it was not at all crowded. This one took the place of our local grocery store when we were newlyweds in the neighborhood. They have erected acrylic sheet partitions as cough and sneeze guards at each register to protect cashier and customer from one another.

One of my worries about these decrees to shut "non-essential" businesses is that small, locally owned businesses will suffer at the expense of big-box stores and online ordering, and that public health will be the worse for it. Which is better for avoiding contagion: Everyone packing into Lowe's to buy flats of pansies and seedling trees, because they're still open for browsing, or smaller numbers of people going to neighborhood nurseries and garden stores like Ted and Debbie's or Rancho Flores to get some items for beautifying the yard where they're spending much more of their time than usual? Which is better for reducing community spread of the CCP Bat Virus: Amazon hiring more workers to crowd into their fulfillment centers to ship office supplies, toys, and craft materials, or local "non-essential" shops serving customers with private browsing by appointment or curbside pickup of phone orders?

By the way, many local "non-essential" retailers I've been worried about have indeed found ways to continue to serve customers. Ted and Debbie's Flower and Garden at 39th and Harvard has expanded delivery service to include garden materials: "For A Small Fee We Will Deliver Flats of Pansies, Mulch, Potting Soil & Everything Available In Our Green Houses." They also offer curbside pickup -- call in an order, drive over, and they'll bring it to your car. They are open 9 to 6 weekdays, 8:30 to 6 Saturdays, and 12:30 to 5 Sundays.

A block north, Kiddlestix, a wonderful locally owned toy store that carries Lego, Playmobil, wooden train sets, games, books, and much more, is also offering online or phone ordering with touch-free curbside pickup, and they will deliver orders over $50 within 5 miles of the store. Kiddlestix is open 10-4, Tuesdays through Saturdays. (They carry Magformers, a favorite building toy with our kids, which consists of colorful magnetized shapes, safe to have around toddlers, and mesmerizing for hours.)

Kiddlestix says, "If you don't see something you're looking for on our website, give us a call! We are constantly getting in new toys and games and are working very hard to get as much as we can online." One silver lining of the current crisis is that it is prompting small retailers to improve their online presence and be better placed to compete with the big-box stores and online behemoths.

Even though they're still in business, these local retailers are at a disadvantage when it comes to browsing and impulse purchases. People can still browse and buy garden materials, toys, camping equipment, electronics, craft and sewing supplies, and clothing at Walmart or Target because they also sell groceries and hardware. Retailers focused on one segment are closed to browsing. Prior to the more general stay-at-home orders, some jurisdictions allowed retailers to offer appointments to browse alone in the store, which seems to me to be a much safer alternative than everyone going to Walmart.

With more time on our hands, this is a good opportunity for all of us to recalibrate our instincts. Instead of reflexively opening your Amazon app or making a beeline for the big-box stores, take some extra time to find a local retailer who can meet your needs.

NOTE: I started writing this just after last weekend, but I finished and took photos today, Saturday, April 4, 2020. I left the date on the post so as not to have to change all the relative time references.

A large cluster of Chinese Communist Party Bat Virus cases has emerged in rural Arkansas, apparently the result of asymptomatic spread at a March 6-8 church event, before any novel coronavirus cases had been reported in Arkansas. Bill Barton, a 91-year-old member who served as greeter at the church, died March 24 from complications from the virus.

The sudden eruption of dozens of cases, including 6 hospitalizations, almost a week following the church gathering, appears to be an indication of the silent spread of the virus. The Greers Ferry outbreak may trace back to the headquarters of Assemblies of God World Missions, based in Springfield, Missouri. Several of the organization's leaders have been hospitalized with COVID-19, as has one of the speakers at the Greers Ferry event, who serves with the organization.

According to a report on Monday, March 23, 2020, in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, there were positive tests for the SARS-CoV-19 coronavirus for 34 people who had attended a "Kids Around the World Kids' Crusade," held on March 6-8 at First Assembly of God in Greers Ferry, Arkansas, 75 miles north of Little Rock. Posts by the church's interim youth directors, Shane and Kim Khoury, highlight a scavenger hunt and door prizes, a taste test of foods from around the world, and a pie in the face for one of the leaders as special features of the three-evening event, which seemed to have been aimed at teaching children about foreign missions.

Those affected were mainly members of the church, but the evangelists who were guest speakers for the event, Thomas and Angelia Carpenter, also tested positive, as did a child from another church attending the event. The Carpenters are based in Springfield, Missouri, serving with CompassionLink, the international compassion outreach of Assemblies of God World Missions, working with community development and health initiatives. According to a post on Angelia Carpenter's Facebook page, Thomas Carpenter has been hospitalized since March 18 and is on a ventilator.

The executive director of Assemblies of God World Missions, Greg Mundis, 69, was reported on March 17 as having pneumonia and a positive COVID-19 diagnosis was confirmed the following day. Latest news on the AGWM website from March 23 is that "his kidneys have been responding and dialysis was to be stopped. His lungs were continuing to respond, but it is still an up and down process." His wife Sandie was also hospitalized and "continues to battle aches and fever." Dr. Greg Mundis Jr., their son, reported on March 25 that his mother was "feeling under the weather with classic flu type symptoms and low grade fever" and his father "is in stable critical condition": "Had to start dialysis again for a short while, but overall he is doing well. His lungs are doing about the same and he hasn't run a temperature."

In a March 25 interview on KMBZ radio, Mundis Jr., a spinal surgeon based in San Diego, went into detail about the course of his parents' illness and treatment. He stated that early in March his father had hosted some French visitors who later tested positive for COVID-19. His father began to have symptoms -- high fever and lethargy -- around the 12th. He was tested for flu around the 14th but was not tested for COVID-19 at that time. On March 16 he was tested, and upon his return home he experienced sudden onset of shortness of breath, went via ambulance to the hospital, and was put on a ventilator. Sandie Mundis went to the emergency room on March 18 with a high fever. Sandie, at high risk due to asthma and diabetes, was immediately placed on hydroxychloroquine and antibiotics to prevent secondary pneumonia, and she was allowed to return home on March 23. Greg Sr. is on a 10-day course of hydroxychloroquine that began on March 19.

In the podcast, Greg Jr. explained at length the significant side effects of these drugs. Both Greg Sr. and Sandie developed a prolonged Q-T interval, a side effect of the drug, which creates a risk of sudden cardiac death, and the levels of medication had to be adjusted. Dr. Mundis was emphatic that hydroxychlorine is not a miracle drug and that the best treatment was to avoid catching the virus at all, by staying home and being diligent about hygiene.

Ron Maddux, director of AGWM's Northern Asia ministries, is also hospitalized with COVID-19. Maddux's son Sam Maddux reported that he went to the ER on March 13 with "some pain in his chest, fever, dizziness, headaches, and pain in his back," was tested on March 16 and was confirmed positive on March 17. After quarantining at home, on March 21 his oxygen levels dropped, and he was admitted to the hospital. He began hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin on March 23. As of March 25, he is still in the hospital and on supplemental oxygen but has not had to be on a ventilator.

A March 25 update from Pastor Mark Palenske on the Greers Ferry First Assembly Facebook page reports that the number of positive cases is now 37, with a "small handful that are still waiting on test results."

In his first Facebook post about the virus on March 19, Pastor Palenske said that he and his wife Dena experienced strong symptoms -- "headache, followed by intense body aches and lethargy" then "waves of chills, sweating and nausea." His wife "had a very scary morning" with "a seizure of sorts" and had to go to the hospital. She improved and was released to recuperate in home quarantine.

Palenske's March 22 update reports that at that point 26 people connected with the church had tested positive, and 6 had been hospitalized. He mentions daily phone calls with the Arkansas Department of Health: "We spent hours on the phone together going over each detail of our story. Retracing every step and sharing more information than we could imagine. They took that information and scoured our community for more that might have been affected."

In a post the evening of March 25, Palenske writes, "Many of us are recovering from a long list of symptoms that seem to be common with this virus, and we certainly appreciate the hints of restored health that are headed our way."

According to Palenske, no one in the church had been outside of the state of Arkansas in the weeks leading up to this outbreak, and the children's ministry event concluded several days before there were any reported COVID-19 cases in the state.

Palenske urged his readers to pray, to take the virus seriously, to heed social distancing guidance, and to express gratitude for health care workers seeing us through this crisis.

I would love to have you take this medical threat more seriously. Maybe you assumed that it couldn't happen to you, just like I did. Please adhere to the social instructions that you are receiving locally and nationally. We must keep the affected population to as low a number as possible. Our singular act of stubborn independence can have far reaching effects on someone else's life. Respect and compassion for the people around us must dominate our self-discipline.

A timeline of events:

• March 4: 118 cases had been reported in 14 US states, 92 of them in California and Washington state. The nearest to Arkansas was one reported case in Texas.
• March 6-8: Kids' crusade hosted by Greers Ferry First Assembly.
• March 10: First symptoms noted by Mark and Dena Palenske, according to his March 22 post. In his March 19 post, Mark Palenske wrote that "there are people who have been sick longer than we have."
• March 11: Governor confirms first case, in Pine Bluff, and issues order declaring a public health emergency.
• March 11: Wednesday night service held at First Assembly; at this point no one in the church had tested positive. No further services have been held by the church. Palenske stated on March 19, "Even before positive results were returned, we had already followed medical advice and canceled services. We were convinced that whether it was Covid-19 or another virus, we assumed that no one wanted what we were dealing with and sought to confine ourselves."
• March 12: Greg Mundis starts experiencing symptoms.
• March 13: Ron Maddux goes to the ER with symptoms.
• March 16: Greg Mundis hospitalized.
• March 18: Thomas Carpenter hospitalized. Sandie Mundis goes to ER with high fever.
• March 19: Mark Palenske first Facebook post about the virus
• March 22: Mark Palenske Facebook update
• March 24: Death of Bill Barton.
• March 25: Mark Palenske Facebook update

If we assume that the virus traveled from AGWM HQ to Greers Ferry via the Carpenters, the virus was transmitted almost a week before AGWM leaders began to experience symptoms.

Two Augusts ago I was in the stands at Brisbane's Exhibition Grounds waiting for the evening performance at the "Ekka" -- Queensland's state fair -- to begin. The crowd stood at attention as a cowgirl on horseback rode around the arena waving a huge Australian flag. The band played and the crowd sang the National Anthem, "Advance, Australia Fair."

There's something about a patriotic display that brings me close to tears, even when it's directed at some other country. Whether it's the crowd at the Last Night of the Proms waving the Union Jack and singing "Land of Hope and Glory," a Welsh men's choir belting out "Men of Harlech," that scene in Casablanca where the customers at Rick's Cafe spontaneously and defiantly sing the "Marseillaise," a group of Augustine Christian Academy students singing along with "Hatikvah" in Israel's Independence Hall, Dorothea Mackellar reciting her poem, "My Country" (see below) -- I get choked up just thinking about it. Love of country is dulce et decorum, sweet and fitting, a sentiment that ought to be honored and cultivated.

But patriotism is everywhere under attack. The advancement of human rights, the extension of human life, and the increase in the standard of living resulting from the spread of western civilization is ignored and the inevitable flaws and failures of any human endeavor are magnified in what conservative Australian political blogger Stephen Cable calls "a black armband view of our past."

We have seen this here in Oklahoma, as an activist convinced the elementary school principals of the Oklahoma City school district that they shouldn't hold re-enactments of the 1889 Land Run, based on the false claim that the run involved murdering Indians. Once nearly all of the schools had dropped the event, the school board voted to ban the celebrations permanently. This in a city that came into existence with an instant population of 10,000 people by sundown the day of the run! In fact, the land had been purchased from the Muscogee Creek tribe pursuant to the post-Civil War 1866 treaty, which also freed slaves owned by the Creeks, granted the Freedmen tribal membership, and granted amnesty to the Creeks who had fought with the Confederacy against the United States. Portions had been allocated to other tribes; the remaining Unassigned Lands were opened for homesteading by land run on April 22, 1889. Oklahoma children are being cheated out of celebrating a unique part of their state's history -- a fun celebration that involves running around outside in pioneer costumes on a spring day -- because of a false narrative pushed by a grievance-monger.

This Friday, January 26, is the 230th anniversary of the date in 1788 that the Governor Arthur Philip of the First Fleet came ashore in Sydney Cove and raised the Union Flag, claiming the continent for the United Kingdom and establishing the first European settlement there. It is an official holiday known as Australia Day, celebrated like America's Independence Day with parades, cookouts, fireworks, flag-flying, and backyard cricket. (All right, the latter doesn't really apply to our Independence Day.) Australia Day falls at the end of the summer holidays and the beginning of a new school year.

Here in Tulsa, the Tulsa Buffaloes, 2017 champion of the US Australian Football Association, will celebrate Australia Day at Veterans Park, their usual venue, on Saturday, January 27, 2018, noon to 4 pm, with a sausage sizzle, some football, some cricket, and followed by further celebrating at Fassler Hall. RSVP and bring a side other than chips.

In recent years, Leftists, intent as they are on destroying civilization so that their socialist utopia can rise from the ashes, have been arguing that Australia Day should be a day of mourning, not celebration, and cultural institutions are beginning to fall in line. This year, Triple J, the state-funded pop music radio network, decided to change the date of their Hottest 100 countdown of listener-selected Australian songs, an Australia Day tradition, because of pressure groups who consider the day offensive to aboriginal Australians. The news release about the move stated, "it was clear most people want the Hottest 100 to be on its own day when everyone can celebrate together," implying that Australia Day isn't something that every Australian can cheer.

Private broadcaster Triple M has stepped in the gap with an "Ozzest 100 countdown." The new Australian Conservatives party responded with a Spotify playlist of 100 songs by Australian bands, leading off with Men at Work's "Down Under," but party leader Sen. Cory Bernardi reported that Spotify briefly pulled the playlist after someone falsely complained of offensive content.

In a recent op-ed, Tony Abbott, a member of Parliament and former Prime Minister of Australia, defended January 26 as the date of Australia's national celebration:

"All right, but apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?" asks the John Cleese character in the classic film Life of Brian. It's worth asking the same question of the British settlement of Australia at the same time as we acknowledge the dispossession of the original inhabitants.

Sure, not everything's perfect in contemporary Australia; and it's possible that Aboriginal life could have continued for some time without modernity bursting upon it, had governor Arthur Phillip not raised the Union flag and toasted the king on January 26, 1788, but it's hard to imagine a better Australia in the absence of the Western civilisation that began here from that date. The rule of law, equality of the sexes, scientific curiosity, technological progress, responsible government -- plus the constant self-criticism and lust for improvement that makes us so self-conscious of our collective failings towards Aboriginal people -- all date from then; and may not have been present to anything like the same extent had the settlers fanning out from Sydney Cove been other than British....

The Australia of those days had all that era's faults: women were kept in their place; dissent was barely tolerated; different races were discriminated against; not everyone could vote; few had access to good education and health care. But the spirit that animated the society thus established has subsequently addressed all these issues, not perfectly, but as well as anywhere.

The surest sign of our success (and of the decency and magnanimity that characterises our people) is that the vast majority of Aboriginal Australians are as proud of our country as they are of their indigenous heritage. How could any Australian's heart not beat with pride?

There are 364 other days of the year when we can wear a black armband and strive to overcome our national failures.... But this Friday I will gladly join millions of my fellow Australians to declare my faith in what, to us, is surely the best country on earth.

While I can't agree with Abbott's final statement, I can agree that the world is a better place for the spread of British civilization across the planet. No country is perfect, no country can be perfect this side of the Great Judgment. ("And there's another country I've heard of long ago....") Those countries that have remained faithful to the notions of fair play, rule of law, sanctity of contract, civil liberties, and human dignity that have their roots at Runnymede in 1215 enjoy stability, freedom, peace, and prosperity that is hard to find anywhere else in the world.

Even though it isn't my country's celebration, Australia Day commemorates the arrival of the civilization that turned a continent into a free, peaceful, and prosperous home for over 24 million people. It's a bit more of a nanny state than I like, and the same progressive blight that afflicts our land has spread there as well, but it's still a beautiful place with friendly, hardworking people, thriving cities and towns, and unrivaled landscapes. It's the country that gave the world ANZACs, Vegemite, Bill Kerr, The Seekers, Joan Sutherland, the novels of Nevil Shute, Aussie Rules Football, Olivia Newton John, the Queenslander house, Yvonne Goolagong, beetroot on burgers, the Crocodile Hunter, The Wiggles, Strictly Ballroom, and Dreamfarm kitchen gadgets.

"The Lucky Country," they call it, but it's more accurate to call it a land abundantly blessed by God, not only in its unique fauna and flora, beaches, mountains, deserts, and valleys, but in the civilization that gained its first foothold 230 years ago today. That's worth celebrating, and I'll be happy to raise a bottle of Bundaberg Ginger Ale in honor of the day.

MORE: The Seekers perform "I Am Australian," "Georgy Girl," "Waltzing Matilda," and "Advance, Australia Fair" at the Grand National Final for the Australian Football League at Melbourne Cricket Grounds.

UPDATE, Australia Day 2020:

The debate about the proper date of a national celebration continues. Kurt Mahlburg writes:

It was much later still, in 1946, that the state and Commonwealth governments agreed to celebrate Australia Day nationally on January 26th. Exactly three years later, Australian citizenship was created with the Nationality and Citizenship Act.

Since that time, people of every race--our indigenous brothers and sisters included--have no longer been regarded as British subjects, but instead as proud Australians. Citizenship ceremonies are still a big part of Australia Day celebrations each year, with over 16,000 becoming citizens again in 2020.

In other words, Australia Day is intended to celebrate what unifies us, not what divides us. We gather at barbecues and beaches and parades and fireworks displays to celebrate the best of Australia, not our worst....

I empathise with any indigenous Australians who connect this date symbolically with "white invasion". But to any who feel this way, I would simply plead that that's not what is being celebrated by anyone on January 26th.

There's no way that 78% of Australians who are proud to celebrate Australia Day on its current date are racists. Unless there is evidence to the contrary, it's only fair to assume that the vast majority of them simply love this country--and all of the great peoples and cultures that make our nation what it is today.

Mahlburg links to a recent interview with Jacinta Nanpijimpa Price, a councilor in the city of Alice Springs, Northern Territory, who is of mixed indigenous and British convict heritage, says that Australia Day is a day to "celebrate what we've all achieved together." She calls it "emotional blackmail" when people accuse those who celebrate Australia Day as celebrating genocide and cultural destruction.

What Stephen Chavura tweeted would apply to the black-armband types in America as well:

If you tweet #AlwaysWasAlwaysWillBe please sign your house and land over to your local historic indigenous tribe. By your own words as long as you don't give it back you're stealing from indigenous Australians and no better than the original invaders. #talkischeap