Election 2020: March 2020 Archives

Postdated to remain at the top of the blog until the polls close at 7 p.m.

Today, March 3, 2020, is the Oklahoma presidential preference primary. Oklahoma is one of 14 states (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Maine, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia (Democrats only), and Vermont) holding a presidential primary on "Super Tuesday." American Samoa Democrats will also hold a territorial caucus on Tuesday.

Super Tuesday came into existence in 1988, driven by southern Democrats. After a win in the post-Watergate election of 1976, with a ticket headed by former Georgia governor Jimmy Carter, Democrats were wiped out in 1980, as Reagan beat Carter, and again in 1984, as Reagan won 49 states against former VP Walter Mondale. The worry was that the early states (Iowa and New Hampshire) tilted the playing field in the liberal direction, resulting in a liberal nominee.

The Democrats' practice of "superdelegates" was another reform aimed at the electability problem that traces back to the reforms prior to the 1972 convention. The idea was that Democrats who had actually been elected office would help shift the convention and the selected nominee in a more centrist direction than Democrat primary voters left to their own devices.

The hope was that a Southern regional primary early in the process would encourage the nomination of a Southern moderate who could win in November. Oklahoma's Democratic governor and legislative majorities went along with the plan; previously, both major parties used the caucus and convention system to elect national delegates from Oklahoma. As it happened, of the 13 Southern states voting, Jesse Jackson won the four Deep South states (LA, MS, AL, GA) plus Virginia, Al Gore won five border states (OK, AR, TN, KY, NC), Michael Dukakis won Florida and Texas, and Dick Gephardt won his home state of Missouri. Dukakis's wins in the south, plus success in his home region of New England, killed Gore's electability argument.

(Virginia Republicans will not hold a primary but will use the caucus and convention process: County and Independent City Republican parties will elect delegates to the Congressional District and State GOP Conventions, and the CD and State Conventions will elect delegates to the Republican National Convention. All of Virginia's 48 delegates will be pledged to the candidate winning the presidential preference vote of delegates at the Virginia State Republican Convention.)

In Oklahoma, each political party may opt to allow voters not registered with a party to vote in their primary. For 2020 the Oklahoma Democratic Party is allowing independents to vote in their primaries; the Republican and Libertarian party primaries will be open only to voters registered with the respective party.

Oklahoma Democrats will have 15 candidates to choose from, all mainstream enough to earn a spot on a debate stage at some point. They're shown below in the order in which they filed for the primary back in December.

• Tulsi Gabbard
• Amy Klobuchar
• Elizabeth Warren
• Bernie Sanders
• Kamala Harris
• Pete Buttigieg
• Andrew Yang
• Deval Patrick
• Michael R. Bloomberg
• Tom Steyer
• Joseph R. Biden
• Michael Bennet
• Marianne Williamson
• Julián Castro
• Cory Booker

Only five are still actively campaigning: Gabbard, Warren, Sanders, Bloomberg, and Biden. (Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Steyer dropped out after poor showings in South Carolina last Saturday.) All of the Democratic candidates take an extreme position in support of abortion. They all support greater intrusion of the federal government into every aspect of life. Each of the Democratic candidates wants Christians either to bow down before the gods of the Sexual Revolution, or have the Federal Government destroy their businesses, their professional careers, their schools, their churches, their private organizations. None of them are "moderate." Given the number of conservative rural Oklahomans who are still registered as Democrats, a candidate that, say, supported private spaces and protected athletic opportunities for women, opposed late term abortion, supported robust protections for religious liberty, and sensible policies on immigration and trade -- someone like Louisiana governor John Bel Edwards -- would do very well in the Oklahoma Democratic primary.

Although you can still vote for any of the candidates on the ballot, a candidate needs at least 15% of the vote in a congressional district or statewide to get any delegates at all. In South Carolina, Biden got 49% and Sanders 20%, but split all of the delegates between them because the rest of the candidates split the remaining 31% of the vote, with none of them topping the threshold. Steyer's 11.3% was the best of the rest. Very little polling has been done in Oklahoma. A Sooner Poll taken from 2/17 to 2/21 put Biden at 21.2%, Bloomberg at 19.8%, undecided at 19.3%. Buttigieg and Klobuchar, both now out of the race, combined for 17%.

For Oklahoma Democrats, each congressional district has a different number of delegates: CD 2 and CD 3 have four each, CD 1 and CD 4 have five each, and CD 5, with a Democrat congressman, has six. There are 13 seats pledged based on statewide results: 8 statewide at-large delegate seats and 5 seats belonging to Party Leader and Elected Officials (PLEOs). Five more PLEOs go as superdelegates -- the Oklahoma Democrat chairman and vice-chairman and the national committeeman and national committeewoman, plus Congressman Kendra Horn. The "superdelegates" aren't pledged to any candidate, but they won't be able to vote unless no candidate receives a majority of the delegate vote on the first ballot at the National Convention. (I am still trying to find out who the pledged PLEOs are and why we have five. In other states, the number of unpledged PLEOs is different from the number of pledged.)

Oklahoma will have 43 delegates to the Republican National Convention, three from each congressional district, plus 28 statewide, including the state party chairman, the national committeeman, and the national committeewoman. If a candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in a CD or statewide, he gets all the delegates for that jurisdiction, even if another candidate breaks 15%, which seems unlikely.

Five Republicans are challenging President Trump on the Oklahoma ballot.

Zoltan G. Istvan, 46, of Mill Valley, CA: Istvan is a transhumanist who wants Republicans to embrace the unfettered use of technology to modify humanity. He believes science and technology can solve all problems. He writes, "The fate of fiscally conservative Republicans rests in embracing transhumanism and become more open-minded to cultural and technological change--or the far-left will own the future, just like they already own the environmental movement. The GOP must embrace radical innovation in the human being and be the caretakers of humanity's brave future." Istvan also wants to "improv[e] the Constitution to make it more malleable and ready to adjust every few years to radically changing times and accelerating technology." Call him the "Brave New World" candidate.

Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente, 65, San Diego, CA: He ran as a Democrat on the 2016 Oklahoma ballot, and his son ran as a Democrat in New Hampshire this year, but he's on the GOP ballot in Oklahoma in 2020. In 2016, he was also the presidential nominee of the American Delta Party and the Reform Party, which was founded by Ross Perot. De La Fuente tends toward an open-borders view: "We need comprehensive immigration reform that views undocumented workers as assets rather than liabilities. It is not logical to suggest that we can deport 13 million immigrants in a way that would be deemed fair. It is just as illogical to suggest that we could deport the small percentage of undocumented immigrants who have committed felonies." He wants to raise the retirement age and the contributions cap to keep Social Security solvent.

Matthew John Matern, 54, Manhattan Beach, CA: Matern is an attorney. He wants to solve homelessness by giving people a $10,000 tax credit for taking in a homeless person. He wants to raise the threshold for taxable income to $50,000 for individuals and $100,000 for families. Matern wants to focus on the environment, including a tax credit for reducing carbon footprint and tariffs to penalize goods from major polluters like India and China. He wants a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

Bob Ely, 61, Vernon Hills, IL: Ely is running as a something of a tongue-in-cheek, satirical candidate, "your least-worst alternative." He calls himself partyfluid, says he has no experience and the charisma of a doorknob. His political pronouncements are the sort of thing your opinionated uncle might shout at the TV while watching the news after a few beers. Ely claims he would be a "better" (and scarier) Trump:

A federal judge I know decried how Trump was subverting the rule of law. I told him I could do much worse. He said that was impossible. How about this, I said:

• In some random speech or tweet I would state: "A human virtue I admire most is loyalty. I am loyal to those who are loyal to me." An unimpeachable statement.
• My sleezy [sic] friends would understand Omertà.
• I would let those who cooperated with Mueller rot in prison; I would pardon those that stayed silent. My smarter sleezy friends would figure out that the easiest strategy would be say nothing; plead guilty; get pardoned.

The judge conceded that would be worse.

On foreign policy, Ely believes that sanctions against international bad guys are ineffective, and that instead, on a case by case basis, America should choose between resigned acceptance and putting a Tomahawk through a dictator's bedroom window, pour encourages les autres. On illegal immigration, Ely supports amnesty and guest worker visas for low-income jobs. Ely doesn't want you to follow him on Twitter or friend him on Facebook.

Joe Walsh, 57, Washington, D.C.: Walsh is a former congressman who suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination after a poor showing in Iowa and is now begging his supporters to vote for Democrats in order to unseat Trump. He won a seat in Congress by a slim margin in 2010, then lost it in 2012, after making light of the war injuries of his Democratic opponent, Tammy Duckworth. He spent much of his presidential campaign apologizing for outrageous things he said as a radio host.

Also on tomorrow's ballot: Seven counties in Oklahoma -- Creek, Cleveland, Kingfisher, Muskogee, Oklahoma, Tulsa, and Washington -- will vote whether to allow liquor stores to open on Sundays. Since supermarkets can now sell strong beer and wine, and they can sell on Sundays, and since people can buy liquor by the drink at bars and restaurants, it seems only fair that liquor stores should be able to compete on a somewhat level playing field. It seems to me that it's safer for everyone if people buy alcohol at the store and take it home to consume, rather than drinking at a bar or restaurant and then having to get home somehow.